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    Turkish-Armenian Normalisation and the Karabakh Conflict

    Ռեֆերատ | Անգլերեն

    Turkish-Armenian Normalisation and the Karabakh Conflict

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    Օգտագործված գրականության ցանկ

    Endnotes
    1 This article is a revised and updated version of “To Link or Not To Link? Turkey-Armenia
    Normalization and the Karabakh Conflict”, Caucasus International, Vol. 2, No. 1 (Spring
    2012), pp. 53-62. The author thanks the editorial board of Caucasus International for their
    reprint permission.


    2 In this article, “Karabakh” refers to all the territories that are the focus of conflict, including
    the territory of what was known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (Region)
    in Soviet times and the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh that are presently occupied
    by Armenian forces. “Nagorno-Karabakh” refers to the territory of the Soviet-era Nagorno-
    Karabakh Autonomous Oblast.

    3 “Turkish PM Sets Conditions to Armenia Reconciliation: Report”, Agence France Presse, 10
    April 2009.

    4 US Department of State, “Press Statement: Turkey and Armenia: Normalization of Relations”,
    at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/04/122065.htm [last visited 22 January 2013].

    5 ANS TV (Baku), 13 May 2009.

    6 U.S. Department of State, “Remarks With Armenian Foreign Minister H.E. Edward
    Nalbandian After Their Meeting”, at http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/09/129687.
    htm [last visited 12 January 2012].

    7 Armenian forces captured a smaller amount of territory, the so-called “Lachin corridor”,
    outside Nagorno-Karabakh in 1992, and additional territories later in the war. For a history
    of the Karabakh conflict, see, Thomas de Waal, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan
    Through Peace and War, New York, NYU Press, 2003.

    8 “Turk Says Russia is Tangled in Caucasus War”, New York Times, 15 April 1993.

    9 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Joint Statement of The Ministries of
    Foreign Affairs of The Republic of Turkey, The Republic of Armenia and The Swiss Federal
    Department of Foreign Affairs”, at http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-56_-22-april-2009_-pressrelease-
    regarding-the-turkish-armenian-relations.en.mfa [last visited 28 January 2013].

    10 The protocols are available at http://www.mfa.gov.tr/sub.en.mfa?93e41cc9-832f-4ec7-a629-
    a920bfdbb432.

    11 See, the two US Department of State statements that opened this article, as well as,
    “President Serzh Sargsyan met in Prague with the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gül”, Office
    to the President of the Republic of Armenia ,at http://www.president.am/en/press-release/
    item/2009/05/07/news-511/ [last visited 03 February 2013].

    12 See, for example, Charles Recknagel and Andrew Tully, “Turkey Signals Opening to
    Armenia Must Include Nagorno-Karabakh Process”, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, at
    http://www.rferl.org/content/Turkey_Signals_Opening_To_Armenia_Must_Include_
    NagornoKarabakh_Progress/1613844.html [last visited 21 January 2012]; “Turkey Still
    Committed to Preconditions in Armenia Talks”, Asbarez, at http://asbarez.com/68790/
    220
    Cory Welt
    turkey-%e2%80%98still-committed%e2%80%99-to-armenia-talks-with-preconditions/
    [last visited 22 January 2012].

    13 Turkish President Abdullah Gül avoided making explicit statements linking the two
    processes and did not attempt to debunk the notion put forward by Armenian president
    Serzh Sarkisian in May 2009 that the two had agreed to “move forward with normalization
    without preconditions and within a reasonable time frame”. See the two US Department
    of State statements that opened this article, as well as “President Serzh Sargsyan met in
    Prague with the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gül”, Office to the President of the Republic
    of Armenia, at http://www.president.am/en/press-release/item/2009/05/07/news-511/ [last
    visited 03 February 2013].

    14 See, for example, “Little Fun for Soccer Fans, Giant Leap for Rapprochement”, Today’s
    Zaman, 13 October 2009.

    15 In particular, the suspicion was that the Turkish government had agreed to declare the formal
    start of the normalisation process only to avoid a vote in the US Congress on recognizing
    Armenian genocide claims. Many believed it was no coincidence that the Turkish-Armenian
    statement was issued just two days before the annual 24 April commemoration. For an
    expression of such suspicion prior to the signing of the protocols, see the US Congressional
    letter reprinted in Armenian National Committee of Armenia, “Over 80 House Members
    Slam Turkey’s Reversal on Proposed ‘Roadmap’”, at http://www.anca.org/press_releases/
    press_releases.php?prid=1745 [last visited 12 January 2013].

    16 The last publicly available statement of the Basic Principles is the Organization for the
    Security and Cooperation in Europe, “Statement by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair
    Countries”, at http://www.osce.org/item/51152 [last visited 20 January 2013].

    17 The text of the constitutional court’s ruling is available at http://www.concourt.am/english/
    decisions/common/pdf/850.pdf [last visited 08 January 2013]; The text of Armenia’s
    declaration of independence is available at http://www.gov.am/en/independence/ [last
    visited 08 January 2013].

    18 For a detailed account of the rise and fall of the Protocols, see, David L. Phillips, Diplomatic
    History: The Turkey-Armenia Protocols, New York, Columbia University, Institute for the
    Study of Human Rights, March 2012; Also see, Alexander Iskandaryan and Sergei Minasyan,
    “Pragmatic Policies vs. Historical Constraints: Analyzing Armenia-Turkey Relations”,
    Caucasus Institute Research Papers, No. 1 (January 2010); Aybars Görgülü, Alexander
    Iskandaryan and Sergei Minasyan, “Assessing the Rapprochment Process”, TESEV Foreign
    Policy Programme- Turkey-Armenia Dialogue Series, May 2010; D. Nigar Göksel, “Turkey and
    Armenia Post-Protocols: Back to Square One?”, TESEV Foreign Policy Programme, Istanbul,
    Turkey, October 2012.

    19 “Joint press conference of Ilham Aliyev and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
    was held”, at http://en.president.az/articles/6053 [last visited 27 December 2012].

    20 See, U.S. Department of State, “The U.S. Relationship With Central Europe Under
    the Obama Administration”, at http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2011/157707.htm
    [last visited 12 January 2013]; “The United States and Turkey: A View from the Obama
    221
    Turkish-Armenian Normalisation and the Karabakh Conflict
    Administration”, at www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2010/138446.htm [last visited 12 January
    2013].

    21 To these justifications might be added two others that could help explain US support for
    dropping conditionality: responsiveness to domestic lobbying and a possible opportunity to
    shift the balance of influence in the Caucasus away from Russia and toward the West. These,
    however, have not been publicly articulated justifications.

    22 See, Thomas de Waal, “Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap”, Carnegie Endowment for
    International Peace, at http://carnegieendowment.org/2010/10/05/armenia-and-turkeybridging-
    gap/22p [last visited 25 January 2013].

    23 Information about the project is available at http://armturkdialogue.net/. Also see, Sinem
    Cengiz, “Turkish, Armenian Journalists Want the Border Opened”, Today’s Zaman, 3 June
    2012; Susanne Güsten, “Using Cheese To Bridge the Turkey-Armenia Gap”, The New York
    Times, 24 October 2012; Göksel, “Turkey and Armenia Post-Protocols: Back to Square
    One?”. On a separate EU-funded collaborative film endeavour by the UK-based NGO
    Conciliation Resources, see, Laurence Broers, “Turks, Armenians and Azeris: Mirrors and
    Memories”, Journal of Conflict Transformation (Caucasus Edition), 1 November 2012, at
    http://caucasusedition.net/analysis/turks-armenians-and-azeris-mirrors-and-memories [last
    visited 12 January 2013].

    24 On the “constructive ambiguity” of the Basic Principles, see, Thomas de Waal, “The
    Karabakh Trap: Dangers and Dilemmas of the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict”, Conciliation
    Resources, December 2008, p. 10.

    25 “Opening speech by Ilham Aliyev at the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers”, at http://
    en.president.az/articles/4105 [last visited 22 December 2012]. In an earlier interview with
    Russian state television, President Aliyev also said that the determination of final status
    “could happen in one year, maybe in ten years, or in 100 years, or this could never happen.
    Time will tell”, Azertag, at http://www.azertag.com/ru/newsarchive?mod=1&date=2009-
    7-6&id=252&partition=1 [last visited 11 December 2012]. The quotation is cited in
    translation in, “Nagorno-Karabagh: Getting to a Breakthrough”, International Crisis Group,
    Europe Briefing No. 55 (October 2009), p. 7.

    26 See, for instance, the discussion of “interim status” in, Conciliation Resources, “Beyond
    Exclusion: Rethinking Approaches to Status in the Nagorno Karabakh Peace Process”,
    Discussion Paper (February 2012).

    27 On problematising the issue of “return” and a discussion of restitution and other alternatives,
    see Gerard Toal, “Return and its Alternatives: International Law, Norms and Practices,
    and Dilemmas of Ethnocratic Power, Implementation, Justice and Development” and the
    other contributions in Forced Displacement in the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict: Return and its
    Alternatives, London, Conciliation Resources, August 2011.

    28 See, Conciliation Resources, “Beyond Exclusion”, p. 7.

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    Endnotes
    1 This article is a revised and updated version of “To Link or Not To Link? Turkey-Armenia
    Normalization and the Karabakh Conflict”, Caucasus International, Vol. 2, No. 1 (Spring
    2012), pp. 53-62. The author thanks the editorial board of Caucasus International for their
    reprint permission.


    2 In this article, “Karabakh” refers to all the territories that are the focus of conflict, including
    the territory of what was known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (Region)
    in Soviet times and the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh that are presently occupied
    by Armenian forces. “Nagorno-Karabakh” refers to the territory of the Soviet-era Nagorno-
    Karabakh Autonomous Oblast.

    3 “Turkish PM Sets Conditions to Armenia Reconciliation: Report”, Agence France Presse, 10
    April 2009.

    4 US Department of State, “Press Statement: Turkey and Armenia: Normalization of Relations”,
    at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/04/122065.htm [last visited 22 January 2013].

    5 ANS TV (Baku), 13 May 2009.

    6 U.S. Department of State, “Remarks With Armenian Foreign Minister H.E. Edward
    Nalbandian After Their Meeting”, at http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/09/129687.
    htm [last visited 12 January 2012].

    7 Armenian forces captured a smaller amount of territory, the so-called “Lachin corridor”,
    outside Nagorno-Karabakh in 1992, and additional territories later in the war. For a history
    of the Karabakh conflict, see, Thomas de Waal, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan
    Through Peace and War, New York, NYU Press, 2003.

    8 “Turk Says Russia is Tangled in Caucasus War”, New York Times, 15 April 1993.

    9 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Joint Statement of The Ministries of
    Foreign Affairs of The Republic of Turkey, The Republic of Armenia and The Swiss Federal
    Department of Foreign Affairs”, at http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-56_-22-april-2009_-pressrelease-
    regarding-the-turkish-armenian-relations.en.mfa [last visited 28 January 2013].

    10 The protocols are available at http://www.mfa.gov.tr/sub.en.mfa?93e41cc9-832f-4ec7-a629-
    a920bfdbb432.

    11 See, the two US Department of State statements that opened this article, as well as,
    “President Serzh Sargsyan met in Prague with the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gül”, Office
    to the President of the Republic of Armenia ,at http://www.president.am/en/press-release/
    item/2009/05/07/news-511/ [last visited 03 February 2013].

    12 See, for example, Charles Recknagel and Andrew Tully, “Turkey Signals Opening to
    Armenia Must Include Nagorno-Karabakh Process”, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, at
    http://www.rferl.org/content/Turkey_Signals_Opening_To_Armenia_Must_Include_
    NagornoKarabakh_Progress/1613844.html [last visited 21 January 2012]; “Turkey Still
    Committed to Preconditions in Armenia Talks”, Asbarez, at http://asbarez.com/68790/
    220
    Cory Welt
    turkey-%e2%80%98still-committed%e2%80%99-to-armenia-talks-with-preconditions/
    [last visited 22 January 2012].

    13 Turkish President Abdullah Gül avoided making explicit statements linking the two
    processes and did not attempt to debunk the notion put forward by Armenian president
    Serzh Sarkisian in May 2009 that the two had agreed to “move forward with normalization
    without preconditions and within a reasonable time frame”. See the two US Department
    of State statements that opened this article, as well as “President Serzh Sargsyan met in
    Prague with the President of Turkey, Abdullah Gül”, Office to the President of the Republic
    of Armenia, at http://www.president.am/en/press-release/item/2009/05/07/news-511/ [last
    visited 03 February 2013].

    14 See, for example, “Little Fun for Soccer Fans, Giant Leap for Rapprochement”, Today’s
    Zaman, 13 October 2009.

    15 In particular, the suspicion was that the Turkish government had agreed to declare the formal
    start of the normalisation process only to avoid a vote in the US Congress on recognizing
    Armenian genocide claims. Many believed it was no coincidence that the Turkish-Armenian
    statement was issued just two days before the annual 24 April commemoration. For an
    expression of such suspicion prior to the signing of the protocols, see the US Congressional
    letter reprinted in Armenian National Committee of Armenia, “Over 80 House Members
    Slam Turkey’s Reversal on Proposed ‘Roadmap’”, at http://www.anca.org/press_releases/
    press_releases.php?prid=1745 [last visited 12 January 2013].

    16 The last publicly available statement of the Basic Principles is the Organization for the
    Security and Cooperation in Europe, “Statement by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair
    Countries”, at http://www.osce.org/item/51152 [last visited 20 January 2013].

    17 The text of the constitutional court’s ruling is available at http://www.concourt.am/english/
    decisions/common/pdf/850.pdf [last visited 08 January 2013]; The text of Armenia’s
    declaration of independence is available at http://www.gov.am/en/independence/ [last
    visited 08 January 2013].

    18 For a detailed account of the rise and fall of the Protocols, see, David L. Phillips, Diplomatic
    History: The Turkey-Armenia Protocols, New York, Columbia University, Institute for the
    Study of Human Rights, March 2012; Also see, Alexander Iskandaryan and Sergei Minasyan,
    “Pragmatic Policies vs. Historical Constraints: Analyzing Armenia-Turkey Relations”,
    Caucasus Institute Research Papers, No. 1 (January 2010); Aybars Görgülü, Alexander
    Iskandaryan and Sergei Minasyan, “Assessing the Rapprochment Process”, TESEV Foreign
    Policy Programme- Turkey-Armenia Dialogue Series, May 2010; D. Nigar Göksel, “Turkey and
    Armenia Post-Protocols: Back to Square One?”, TESEV Foreign Policy Programme, Istanbul,
    Turkey, October 2012.

    19 “Joint press conference of Ilham Aliyev and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
    was held”, at http://en.president.az/articles/6053 [last visited 27 December 2012].

    20 See, U.S. Department of State, “The U.S. Relationship With Central Europe Under
    the Obama Administration”, at http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2011/157707.htm
    [last visited 12 January 2013]; “The United States and Turkey: A View from the Obama
    221
    Turkish-Armenian Normalisation and the Karabakh Conflict
    Administration”, at www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2010/138446.htm [last visited 12 January
    2013].

    21 To these justifications might be added two others that could help explain US support for
    dropping conditionality: responsiveness to domestic lobbying and a possible opportunity to
    shift the balance of influence in the Caucasus away from Russia and toward the West. These,
    however, have not been publicly articulated justifications.

    22 See, Thomas de Waal, “Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap”, Carnegie Endowment for
    International Peace, at http://carnegieendowment.org/2010/10/05/armenia-and-turkeybridging-
    gap/22p [last visited 25 January 2013].

    23 Information about the project is available at http://armturkdialogue.net/. Also see, Sinem
    Cengiz, “Turkish, Armenian Journalists Want the Border Opened”, Today’s Zaman, 3 June
    2012; Susanne Güsten, “Using Cheese To Bridge the Turkey-Armenia Gap”, The New York
    Times, 24 October 2012; Göksel, “Turkey and Armenia Post-Protocols: Back to Square
    One?”. On a separate EU-funded collaborative film endeavour by the UK-based NGO
    Conciliation Resources, see, Laurence Broers, “Turks, Armenians and Azeris: Mirrors and
    Memories”, Journal of Conflict Transformation (Caucasus Edition), 1 November 2012, at
    http://caucasusedition.net/analysis/turks-armenians-and-azeris-mirrors-and-memories [last
    visited 12 January 2013].

    24 On the “constructive ambiguity” of the Basic Principles, see, Thomas de Waal, “The
    Karabakh Trap: Dangers and Dilemmas of the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict”, Conciliation
    Resources, December 2008, p. 10.

    25 “Opening speech by Ilham Aliyev at the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers”, at http://
    en.president.az/articles/4105 [last visited 22 December 2012]. In an earlier interview with
    Russian state television, President Aliyev also said that the determination of final status
    “could happen in one year, maybe in ten years, or in 100 years, or this could never happen.
    Time will tell”, Azertag, at http://www.azertag.com/ru/newsarchive?mod=1&date=2009-
    7-6&id=252&partition=1 [last visited 11 December 2012]. The quotation is cited in
    translation in, “Nagorno-Karabagh: Getting to a Breakthrough”, International Crisis Group,
    Europe Briefing No. 55 (October 2009), p. 7.

    26 See, for instance, the discussion of “interim status” in, Conciliation Resources, “Beyond
    Exclusion: Rethinking Approaches to Status in the Nagorno Karabakh Peace Process”,
    Discussion Paper (February 2012).

    27 On problematising the issue of “return” and a discussion of restitution and other alternatives,
    see Gerard Toal, “Return and its Alternatives: International Law, Norms and Practices,
    and Dilemmas of Ethnocratic Power, Implementation, Justice and Development” and the
    other contributions in Forced Displacement in the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict: Return and its
    Alternatives, London, Conciliation Resources, August 2011.

    28 See, Conciliation Resources, “Beyond Exclusion”, p. 7.

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